Publikation
The impact of electricity price forecasting on the optimal day-ahead dispatch of battery energy storage systems
Leon Tadayon; Dominic Detering; Wolfgang Maaß; Georg Frey
In: Neis 2025 - Conference on Sustainable Energy Supply and Energy Storage Systems. Conference on Sustainable Energy Supply and Energy Storage Systems (NEIS-2025), September 15-16, Hamburg, Germany, 2025.
Zusammenfassung
Energy storage operation strategies depend on forecasts of the expected prices in the dispatch period. The quality of the forecast influences the economic success of the dispatch strategy. Nevertheless, current literature only evaluates the forecast with performance metrics on the time series, not with realized revenue. In addition, dispatch strategies are mostly evaluated with perfect foresight, which is not available in real life applications, or synthetically generated price fore-casts, that do not precisely reflect shortcomings of real forecasting models. To examine the influence of forecasting performance on the realized revenue and the robustness against imprecise forecasts, we examine the use case of energy arbitrage in the day-ahead energy market with a battery storage. Different forecasting models are implemented to predict the resulting clearing price of the day-ahead auction before its closure based on the historic realized price of the past days. The price forecast is then used in a mixed integer linear programming-based dispatch model for the battery storage to derive the optimal schedule for market participation. To benchmark the realized revenue, we use the actual realized price to compute the optimal dispatch decision, resulting in the theoretical maximal revenue under perfect foresight. The impact of different forecasting models is evaluated by comparing the resulting revenues. Furthermore, we study the impact of including the ageing costs of the battery in the dispatch decision-making, which affects the forecast-based dispatch. The results show significantly higher missed revenue of 84.84 % compared to the theoretical maximum revenue when ageing costs are included and only 28.27 % missed revenue when ageing costs are neglected.